题 目：GDP Distortion, Information Advantages, and Analyst Forecast Accuracy

报告人：张飞达，澳大利亚昆士兰大学商学院，副教授

时 间：2019年11月1日（星期五），15：00-16：30

地 点：嘉庚二512室

主持人：杜兴强 教授

参 加 者：对会计、财务研究有兴趣的师生

论文摘要：Prior literature documents that GDP management leads to biased GDP numbers which are vital to the decisions of businesses and policymakers (e.g. Lyu et al. 2018). However, the evidence on the economic consequences of distorted GDP data is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy (AFA), and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy.